NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4, an asteroid once thought to have a small chance of striking the Moon in 2032, will now safely miss it. New measurements from the James Webb Space Telescope show that asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass about 13,200 miles above the lunar surface on December 22, 2032. The updated calculations remove the earlier possibility of a collision that had briefly caught the attention of astronomers and skywatchers.
Scientists from NASA and the Center for Near‑Earth Object Studies at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory confirmed the new estimate after analyzing fresh observations taken on February 18 and 26 with Webb’s near-infrared camera. The new data allowed researchers to tighten their calculations of the asteroid’s path through space and rule out any chance that it will strike the Moon.
Earlier estimates had left room for doubt. When astronomers first tracked the asteroid in 2025, the limits of available observations meant its future position was harder to pin down. At that time, calculations showed a 4.3 percent chance that the rock could hit the Moon in 2032. Those odds were small but high enough to draw interest from researchers who monitor potential impact risks.
The asteroid was first spotted in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial‑Impact Last Alert System in Chile. Early tracking also raised a remote possibility of an Earth impact, though scientists dismissed that scenario soon after additional measurements came in.
Asteroids often follow this pattern. Initial orbit estimates can leave a wide range of possible paths, especially when the object is faint or observed for only a short time.
As telescopes collect more data, scientists refine the orbit and remove most impact scenarios. A well-known example is 99942 Apophis, which stirred concern after its discovery in 2004 because early calculations hinted at a chance of an Earth impact in 2029 or 2036. Later observations eliminated that threat.